Archive for April, 2008

How we will beat Netflix

Tuesday, April 8th, 2008

The Netflix Challenge is a $1 million prize for an improved movie recommendation algorithm that does better than the Netflix algorithm at predicting how a user will rate a movie.

Different teams, including some at Stanford, have adopted various approaches to the problem including very, very sophisticated algorithms. But a few teams have taken a different approach and instead of limiting themselves to the Netflix data set they have instead included additional useful data sets. And no surprise - when you think outside the box the results are often much better (but unfortunately you won’t win the prize by bending the rules).

The bigger point is that adding more independent data usually beats out designing increasingly better, but only incrementally better, algorithms.

Another example of this comes from Google. Many people mistakenly believe the success of Google is predicated on their brilliant algorithms, namely PageRank. The truth is the innovation lies in the dual recognition that hyperlinks were an important measure of popularity and that anchortext in the web index should weight the page title. Previous search engines had only used the text of the web pages themselves, so the addition of these two data sets rocketed Google’s search up the leaderboard.

Another Google example is from Adwords - the keyword auction model. Overture popularized advertisers bidding on keywords but Google significantly improved the results by adding additional data: the click-through rate (CTR) on each ad. This change made Google’s ad marketplace much more efficient than Overture’s and again the point is the algorithm itself isn’t the key component but rather the addition of new data.

So we aren’t working on incrementally improving the algorithms around personalized search and recommendations for movies - we are working on adding more data, the right data, to fundamentally change the quality of those recommendations.

The obvious question remains: can’t Netflix do that also? they could, but they would have to radically change the information they collect from each user, on each users social circle, on each movie, and to top it all off develop the right algorithms. Still sound easy?

Hollywood

Saturday, April 5th, 2008

A few of us went down to Los Angeles this past weekend to speak with some film industry experts and immerse ourselves in Hollywood culture. On Friday we met with Kevin Chang who works for Kevin Misher, a big producer for Paramount that has worked on Rudy, Donnie Brasco, Fast and the Furious, Meet the Parents and most recently the Interpreter starring Nicole Kidman and Sean Penn. On Saturday we met with Leonard Rabinowitz, president of StudioCL, who launched the Carole Little clothing line worn by such actresses as Lindsay Lohan and Jessica Alba and has invested in several film projects. And on Sunday, we ended our trip at the El Caballero Country Club where we met Tom Sherak, former chairman of 20th Century Fox Domestic Film Group and former partner at Revolution Studios.

Some key things we learned during our meetings: 65% of box office sales today actually come from overseas. With the margins for film becoming increasingly compressed, studios continue to search for new ways to understand their audiences and market appropriate films to each person’s tastes.

There’s a good chance we’ll be making more visits to LA in the coming months and we hope to continue meeting new friends and business partners.

Hollywood

Meeting with Leonard

Chicken